E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)
- S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 5521.50, down 24.50 on Friday and 12.75 on the week
- NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 19,927.25, down 112.25 on Friday and 55.50 on the week
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures set fresh intraday highs on Friday but quickly faded after trapping those who bought on the heels of supportive economic data. Core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, was in line with expectations, and the Personal Spending component was light, which further supported the narrative of a tiring consumer after Q1 GDP showed a revision lower in Consumer Spending. Furthermore, June’s final Michigan Consumer dataset revised 1-year inflation expectations lower to 3.0% from 3.3%. At that point, all the excitement was captured, and 10 minutes after the Michigan release, on the final day of the quarter, the tape exuded clear buyers’ exhaustion. Within two hours, the opening bell range had been surrendered.
The ensuing weakness certainly set the stage for perma-bears to spread their wings over the weekend (social media and pundit articles); yup, those who have been calling for the market to correct since sub-4000 S&P, and will act as if they were right upon the next healthy 5% consolidation. We do believe traders must carry a sense of caution as the new quarter, amid a holiday and data-heavy week, gets underway, but we invited Friday’s tradable range and weakness as it helped to further define support. We have major three-star support in the S&P aligning our previous pocket with Friday’s gap settlement at 5516-5521.50. Although we do have two additional areas of critical support defined at 5498.75-5503 and 5589.75-5592.75, we do realize an extended period of time below 5516-5521.50 after the first hour of trade would help encourage a prolonged healthy pullback through the middle of the week that could extend as low as 5400. Until then we must remain cautiously Bullish in Bias.
Traders must gear up for ISM Manufacturing today at 9:00 am CT and ISM Services on Wednesday.
- Bias: Neutral/Bullish
- Resistance: 5541.50, 5547.25-5552.75, 5563.75, 5576.75, 5583-5588, 5620.75**, 5762.75
- Pivot: 5535.50
- Support: 5516-5521.50, 5510.25-5511.75**, 5498.75-5503, 5489.75-5492.75, 5465.60, 5448.25-5449.25, 5427.50-5430.75
NQ (September)
- Resistance: 20,039, 20,070-20,075, 20,116-20,130, 20,178-20,197, 20,215-20,228, 20,247-20,274, 20,371
- Pivot: 19,985
- Support: 19,901-19,927, 19,832-19,856, 19,792, 19,732-19,757, 19,649, 19,426-19,497*
Crude Oil (August)
Last week’s close: Settled at 81.54, down 0.20 on Friday and up 0.81 on the week
WTI Crude Oil futures have been building a floor out above the psychological $80 mark. The June 18th breakout above 80.11-80.61 has failed to extend gains significantly but has remained robustly constructive above support. Headwinds have come from the fear of rising production from OPEC+ and the U.S. Also, despite weak Manufacturing PMIs from China over the weekend Crude Oil is bid to $82 this morning and finding taiwlinds from Hurricane Beryl.
Price action stuck its nose above major three-star resistance at 82.24-82.35 Friday, and we still view this area as significant, with a close above likely inviting added buying.
- Bias: Bullish/Neutral
- Resistance: 82.24-82.35, 82.72*, 84.00
- Pivot: 81.85
- Support: 80.97-81.21, 80.11-80.36, 79.72-79.97, 78.61-78.94*
Gold (August) / Silver (September)
Gold, last week’s close: Settled at 2339.6, up 3.0 on Friday and 8.4 on the week
Silver, last week’s close: Settled at 29.56, up 0.304 on Friday and down 0.382 on the week
Gold and Silver futures failed to respond to a barrage of supportive economic data through the end of the week, and despite a positive finish, it felt more or less flat-footed. We now look to ISM Manufacturing at 9:00 am CT, and it can be a tough datapoint to balance; metals are used in the manufacturing process, but weaker data is seen supportive to the Fed cutting rates. At the end of the day, we must see a sustained move in Gold out above major three-star resistance at 2348.7-2350.6 and Silver above 29.95-30.12 in order to encourage price action to come out of a constructive bottoming pattern.
- Bias: Neutral/Bullish
- Resistance: 2348.7-2850.6, 2355.3-2358.8, 2369**
- Pivot: 2338-2340.5
- Support: 2326.8-2329.7, 2322, 2312.2-2315.9, 2304.2-2306.8*
Silver (Sept)
- Resistance: 29.70-29.74, 29.95-30.12
- Pivot: 29.50
- Support: 29.40, 29.25, 28.90-29.07, 28.65-28.74, 27.84-28.08***
Micro Bitcoin (July)
- Last week’s close: Settled at 60,325, down 1,520 on Friday and 4,485 on the week
- Bias: Neutral/Bullish
- Resistance: 64,362-64,810***
- Pivot: 62,995-63,015
- Support: 62,254*, 61,010-61,320, 60,325-60,390, 59,590, 58,130-58,845*
Want to keep reading?
Subscribe to our daily Morning Express for daily insights into Precious Metals like Gold and Silver, Crude Oil and more! Technicals, including our proprietary trading levels, and actionable market bias.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.
With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500
Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.
One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
On the date of publication, Bill Baruch did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
